Quill (![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small} quill18) wrote,@ 2009-01-20 22:23:00 |
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Beware: Poker post within.
Now, before you get TOO excited, while I am playing for real money, I am playing strictly in the micro-limits. My winnings so far couldn't cover a single hand at a Las Vegas poker table. Still, there's a trend that I'm happy with so far.
I started this latest poker run with about $15 -- all that was left in my account at PokerStars after cashing out a couple years ago (I've played on and off a bit since then, mostly losing a buck or so each time). Before starting up again, I read my poker books to try to get a handle on the basics again. I then sat down at the absolute lowest limit games to start practicing (we're talking having to call two cents to see a flop.)
I lost half my bankroll after around 1,600 hands. (A whopping seven or eight bucks.) I knew I wasn't playing all that bad, but there was clearly some leaks in my game. I re-read my poker books, but also did some really in-depth statistical analysis of my hands to date. 1.6k hands is a VERY SMALL sample size -- almost insignificant. However, it was just big enough to show me that my problem was that I was playing a little too cautiously. It looked like I was probably folding a little too often on the Turn or River.
I adjusted my play to hang on to my cards a little bit more often, and you can see the result pretty clearly above. Right away, at the 1.6k mark, you can see that the very shape of the line changes. I started winning a tiny bit more. Then, around the 1800 mark, I got a run of bad luck, resulting in a deep dip. And then, finally, my strategic adjustment really pay off. I was in a big huge pot when a scary card hit the river and my opponents bet. I was certain that I must be beat, because I had an incredibly weak hand. I'm certain that 95% of the time, I'm toast. But checking the size of the pot, I realize that if there was that 5% chance that I was ahead, it was worth calling the bet. So I do, and I win the pot.
Then I get it. I become far more aware of the importance of the pot size. I start folding more easily in small pots, and I become far more tenacious in big ones. Slowly, bit by bit, I made back all the money that I lost in my "training" period.
But so far, I'd been playing Limit Hold'em. They don't show Limit poker on TV, because it can be kind of boring. It can be a real grind -- it's very mechanical play and even "big" pots aren't that big.
And indeed, I got a bit bored.
No Limit is the sort of poker that gets televised more often -- though usually in tournament format. In a "real" no-limit game (a "ring" game), if a player gets busted he can just plop down another stack of chips from his bankroll and keep playing. There can be a lot more risk...or a lot more reward if you're the one busting other people.
Just as a way to take a break from Limit, I decide to drop some chips on a No Limit table. Even if I lost my entire stack, I'd still have a healthy bankroll and clearly I could recover my lost playing Limit again. My aim was simply to have a bit of fun, and maybe learn a bit.
As you can plainly see from the graph above, I had some pretty explosive results right away. Actually, the whole shape of the graph is radically different than my Limit hands. The short-term variance is insane. The downswings, in just a few hands, exceed the loses from the first 1.6k hands that I have tracked in the graph!
That being said, there is a clear (and steep) upward trend. Over the last six days, I've won over $27 ----- and I'm still playing at tables where the basic bet is TWO CENTS. Twenty-seven bucks represents a monstrous success rate. Obviously, since I'm at such low limits, I'm playing against other beginners. I'm not going to pretend for a second that I could go to a high stakes game and do well.
My bankroll is currently at $41.23. My goal is to get it to around $100 and the move up to the crazy stakes of......a nickel. The max buyin at a table where the Big Blind is a nickel is $10. This will give me a bankroll big enough that I can bust several times without going broke. If for some reason I lose enough to drop below $50, I'll go back to the lower limits for more practice.
Now, before you get TOO excited, while I am playing for real money, I am playing strictly in the micro-limits. My winnings so far couldn't cover a single hand at a Las Vegas poker table. Still, there's a trend that I'm happy with so far.
I started this latest poker run with about $15 -- all that was left in my account at PokerStars after cashing out a couple years ago (I've played on and off a bit since then, mostly losing a buck or so each time). Before starting up again, I read my poker books to try to get a handle on the basics again. I then sat down at the absolute lowest limit games to start practicing (we're talking having to call two cents to see a flop.)
I lost half my bankroll after around 1,600 hands. (A whopping seven or eight bucks.) I knew I wasn't playing all that bad, but there was clearly some leaks in my game. I re-read my poker books, but also did some really in-depth statistical analysis of my hands to date. 1.6k hands is a VERY SMALL sample size -- almost insignificant. However, it was just big enough to show me that my problem was that I was playing a little too cautiously. It looked like I was probably folding a little too often on the Turn or River.
I adjusted my play to hang on to my cards a little bit more often, and you can see the result pretty clearly above. Right away, at the 1.6k mark, you can see that the very shape of the line changes. I started winning a tiny bit more. Then, around the 1800 mark, I got a run of bad luck, resulting in a deep dip. And then, finally, my strategic adjustment really pay off. I was in a big huge pot when a scary card hit the river and my opponents bet. I was certain that I must be beat, because I had an incredibly weak hand. I'm certain that 95% of the time, I'm toast. But checking the size of the pot, I realize that if there was that 5% chance that I was ahead, it was worth calling the bet. So I do, and I win the pot.
Then I get it. I become far more aware of the importance of the pot size. I start folding more easily in small pots, and I become far more tenacious in big ones. Slowly, bit by bit, I made back all the money that I lost in my "training" period.
But so far, I'd been playing Limit Hold'em. They don't show Limit poker on TV, because it can be kind of boring. It can be a real grind -- it's very mechanical play and even "big" pots aren't that big.
And indeed, I got a bit bored.
No Limit is the sort of poker that gets televised more often -- though usually in tournament format. In a "real" no-limit game (a "ring" game), if a player gets busted he can just plop down another stack of chips from his bankroll and keep playing. There can be a lot more risk...or a lot more reward if you're the one busting other people.
Just as a way to take a break from Limit, I decide to drop some chips on a No Limit table. Even if I lost my entire stack, I'd still have a healthy bankroll and clearly I could recover my lost playing Limit again. My aim was simply to have a bit of fun, and maybe learn a bit.
As you can plainly see from the graph above, I had some pretty explosive results right away. Actually, the whole shape of the graph is radically different than my Limit hands. The short-term variance is insane. The downswings, in just a few hands, exceed the loses from the first 1.6k hands that I have tracked in the graph!
That being said, there is a clear (and steep) upward trend. Over the last six days, I've won over $27 ----- and I'm still playing at tables where the basic bet is TWO CENTS. Twenty-seven bucks represents a monstrous success rate. Obviously, since I'm at such low limits, I'm playing against other beginners. I'm not going to pretend for a second that I could go to a high stakes game and do well.
My bankroll is currently at $41.23. My goal is to get it to around $100 and the move up to the crazy stakes of......a nickel. The max buyin at a table where the Big Blind is a nickel is $10. This will give me a bankroll big enough that I can bust several times without going broke. If for some reason I lose enough to drop below $50, I'll go back to the lower limits for more practice.
